Manchester City, Premier League, Uefa Cup
The maths of Manchester City’s continental dreams
Manchester City need a strong finish to the campaign to make it into Europe next season - but how have they fared in previous run-ins? The Premier League table this year is very tight in a number of key positions: the title is pretty much being contested by three clubs and the relegation battle is as [...]
Manchester City need a strong finish to the campaign to make it into Europe next season - but how have they fared in previous run-ins?
The Premier League table this year is very tight in a number of key positions: the title is pretty much being contested by three clubs and the relegation battle is as fierce as ever. But it is the battle for the European spots that will be potentially most intriguing, and Manchester City are one of the high-flying sides challenging for a Uefa Cup place, if not fourth spot and the Champions League.
With City still to play 32% of their games, I have decided to look back to see how the club have fared in previous seasons. City qualified for Europe through the league in 1968, ‘72, ‘77 and ‘78 and during those campaigns, they got between 25% and 29% of their points in the last 32% of the season’s fixtures. If you were to put that into the league table as it stands today and you will expect to get between 15 and 18 points from the remaining 12 games (giving City between 59 and 62 points) which ought to be enough for a place in the Uefa Cup next season.
I hear you all saying “But that was 30 years ago!” So let us take the last five Premier League seasons and see what percentage of City’s points were earned in the final 12 games.
Last season and in the 2002/03 season, City managed to get 29% and 27% respectively. In the 2005/06 campaign the club managed just six points (a poor 14%) – a repeat this time around would give City only 50 points.
However this season has witnessed City do the double over bitter rivals United - something they haven’t done since 1970 - as well as spending the entire season inside the top half (and mostly inside the top five) of the table.
It seems unlikely Manchester City would only get six points from the final 12 games. Turning to the 2003/04 and 04/05 seasons, one will find a far superior finish to the season, better than even the aforementioned European seasons, with the club attaining 34% and 37% of their points, which, if copied this season would see City finish with between 58 and 63 points.
Obviously, no one can predict the actual outcome but hopes are high that City can return to the European scene. They have been averaging 1.7 points per game this season and if this continues until the end of the campaign, City will end on 64 points – a larger total than any of the above scenarios come to!
Man City for Europe?
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if city carry on what they are doing this season and a little more, we will be on our way to Europe, especially with the new signings they will hopefully bring more strength to the team. Also i think this article couldnt of been written any better by a professional. x
Gud Stuff :D:D….
Keep Doin Wht U Do Best
So at a brief glance you could say that on average we get around 25% of our season’s points in the final 12 games?
Taking that into account, we’ll end up on 59 points which would be great considering where we ended up last year!
Good read.
What a waste of time these stats are, i’m surprised they don’t mention the price of eggs, that would be just as relevant.
How can you compare results from previous teams to our current one, surely this team’s performance will be infinitely better than our previous bosman specials.
You were saying durban blue moon…..
With one game to go a win would see us up to 26% of our total points in the final and like I said see us end between 58 and 63pts, even if it is the lower end of the estimate. As for eggs? I have no clue you want organic, brown, medium, smalls, large, extra large??