Champions League, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United

A broadsheet journalist quite rightly pointed out this week that Champions League semi-final first legs are pretty pointless, beyond giving both teams the chance to play a home leg.

Chelsea’s away goal is arguably very valuable but it seems that, more and more, the main priority of teams in the first leg is to stay in the tie.

The home side is always tempted to try and build a lead, and consequently starts brightly. But as the game gets older, the cost of conceding becomes greater and both teams prioritise defensive solidity. In short, the second legs are where you will find most of the drama. And so, this week should provide some of the best football of the season.

As usual, Chelsea versus Liverpool is virtually impossible to call and both still have a great chance of reaching Moscow. The first leg told us little that we didn’t already know and even less about which team will reach the final. Even a Chelsea team playing below their considerable potential is extremely hard to beat whilst Liverpool play European ties with great authority and nous. The Blues will feel buoyed by their rather fortuitous late goal at Anfield (and indeed their defeat of Manchester United at the weekend) but Liverpool look more dangerous in front of goal, not least because of the perennial threat of the Torres/Gerrard combination, which has blossomed over a short period.

Furthermore, having dropped out of contention for the league, Liverpool have continually rested their big players over the last few weeks and they will be fresh as a consequence. Chelsea, by contrast, played one of their strongest eleven’s of the season against United at the weekend and despite the lift a win would have given them, it is nonetheless a victory that will have taken a lot out of the players. So, you would think that Liverpool would have the upper hand in terms of physical conditioning.

We must also remember that Liverpool have been to the final twice in the last three years – they know what it takes to go all the way and this experience will be valuable. Thus, even with their away goal, Chelsea fans won’t be sitting too comfortably. Liverpool also seem to offer a more coherent unit at present. But Chelsea have come back from the dead on so many occasions this season and who is to say they won’t overcome the Reds tomorrow? Certainly not me.

The first goal at Stamford Bridge could be all important. But there is so little to separate these teams that it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see another penalty shoot out deciding the game on Wednesday.

Manchester United have had a difficult spell. Their results have stagnated and their form has apparently dipped. Sir Alex Ferguson drew much criticism for choosing an under-strength team against Chelsea on Saturday but, as he pointed out in his press conference earlier on Monday, he wants to give the club the best possible chance of improving their haul of Champions League medals. It’s always going to be hard to decide who and how many to rest when the games are coming thick and fast, but Ferguson seems to have got it just right. Time will tell, but the fact is United could afford to lose at the weekend and still win the title.

In the Champions League however, there is no such room for error. Last season United lost the tie in Milan, where they looked exhausted from their previous exertions. They weren’t necessarily the poorer side, but injuries and fatigue blunted their their European assault. Whatever happened this season, Ferguson wasn’t going to make the same mistake if his team reached the latter stages of the Champions League.

He wants his best players fit and fresh for the biggest games.

So, whilst he has generated media skepticism for his selection on Saturday, it means that he will have Evra, Tevez, Ronaldo, Scholes and probably (if unwittingly) Vidic ready for United’s most important game of the season.

If United can impose themselves and get an early goal, it could be a famous night for the Old Trafford faithful, but the prospect of conceding a goal and then requiring two will also temper their approach to the game. Barcelona proved last week that they are still an excellent side, but their lack of penetration in the final third and suspect defence may be further exposed at Old Trafford.

Ultimately, it comes down to whether United perform to their capacity. The tie is there for the taking if they can summons the sort of top performance that they have managed frequently this season, but seldom of late. The fitness of Vidic and Rooney will also be a major factor but if they play, United should progress to the final.

Tags: Alex Ferguson, Avram Grant, Champions League, Nemanja Vidic, Rafa Benitez

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