English quartet underperform, but Chelsea are best placed

The English elite are proving that their dominance of Europe is not an aberration. Once again, all four have made it into the last 16 having strengthened in the summer while avoiding any drastic changes to their personnel.

Chelsea brought in a new coach, Manchester United held onto the world’s best player and Liverpool continued to invest. Arsenal, meanwhile, remained the most constant – perhaps to their cost – although managed to add another star for the future in Samir Nasri.

The minimum expectation of these four sides is to ensure Champions League football in the New Year. This was achieved, but none of the quartet absolutely convinced in their qualification.

Liverpool were by far the best performer, notching up an equal-best (alongside Bayern Munich) 14 points and easing through Group D with no defeats. A pair of fortuitous draws with Atletico Madrid indicates, however, that stronger opposition may severely test the Reds. Manchester United managed to pull off the Premier League and European double last season but is Rafa Benitez really in as good a position to pull off the same feat?

Liverpool have struggled domestically for an eternity, but this season, for the first time under Benitez, they look capable of topping the Premier League come May.

The Spaniard has already had his moment in Europe, and thus would be foolish to compromise Liverpool’s best opportunity in recent memory by concentrating too much on the Champions League. It is a competition that forever allures Benitez: the short tactical match-ups over two legs suit him perfectly and his natural inclination to play defensively frequently achieves results on the peninsula.

He must, however, enforce the point to his players that the league is top priority. The supporters want only the domestic crown; and aiming for both the major trophies would be unnecessarily greedy on Benitez’s part. His bosses remain aloof but domineering. The coach wants a trophy to demonstrate his worth – and to justify a new contract. But risking that pledge on the Champions League could prove Benitez’s worst decision yet.

Better than a semi-final appearance or runners-up position once more, the Liverpool support would rather take an unsuccessful title race that went down to the wire. Then, at last, Benitez would have demonstrated that he has the ability to last the course in the league.

Possible last 16 opponents
At worst… Inter Milan, Real Madrid
At best… Sporting

Prediction: Should make it into the last eight at least, but if the thriving league campaign remains on track, expect that trophy to consume all of Liverpool’s thinking.

Manchester United’s current campaign has yet to ignite. Just two victories from their six matches ought to have seen them finish off top spot but Villarreal couldn’t take their opportunities either; Group E might have been renamed the Group of Draws. No other of the seven groupings managed so many draws – half the twelve games ended in a tie – but as a result, it is hard to read much into Man Utd’s prospects.

Cristiano Ronaldo has been peripheral but Wayne Rooney has improved (although could now be heading for a suspension after his antics against Aalborg); the defence conceded the equal-fewest goals in the group stage – just three – but the forwards proffered just nine goals. Winning back-to-back Champions League titles is incredibly difficult and even though Sir Alex Ferguson held onto Ronaldo, making history looks improbable. Last season, they were guided by Ronaldo but cannot again rely solely on an individual. Especially one who still has his mind on Madrid.

Magic from the likes of Scholes and Giggs is inevitably fading and the energy of their last European campaign seems to be missing from this. It has also been a sluggish start in the Premier League for Ferguson’s side. It appears, after all the glory of 2007/8 campaign, motivating the squad for another is proving arduous.

Possible last 16 opponents
At worst… Inter Milan, Real Madrid
At best… Sporting

Prediction: Sir Alex would certainly like to avoid Inter or Real in February, with Man Utd ripe for an early exit. If they can progress into the last eight, then perhaps the squad will regain its appetite for silverware.

On paper, Arsenal’s campaign thus far seems a successful one. They qualified with a match to spare and all eyes were on repeating their memorable 2006 final appearance. But the reality has been much different.

They picked up a bonus three points off Dynamo Kiev with late goals – the winner at the Emirates particularly fortunate – and couldn’t beat a weak Fenerbahce side at home, despite having smashed them 5-2 in Turkey just two weeks prior. They hammered Porto in London but fell to a meek defeat in Portugal to surrender first place. Results that encapsulate their season.

Winning the league, after five defeats in 16 matches, already seems an unmanageable task. This despite beating both Manchester United and Chelsea. Arsenal’s lack of consistency is the supporters’ and Arsene Wenger’s chief frustration. They can outplay Man Utd one week before losing at home to Aston Villa the next. They seemed irrepressible against Porto and Fenerbache, scoring nine goals, but then failed to register against those same sides in the reverse fixtures.

Arsenal ought to win the Champions League. They often lose in England because they come up against low-skilled teams who bully them into defeat. In Europe, they face technically-able sides, especially in the knockout rounds. But if Wenger cannot sort out the dressing room and his players’ unreliability, another premature exit awaits, despite the patent talent in the squad.

Possible last 16 opponents
At worst… Barcelona, Juventus
At best… Panathinaikos

Prediction: For English sides, there is a definite negative with finishing second in the group. Alongside Barcelona and Juve, Arsenal might face Roma or Bayern Munich. In fact, Panathinaikos are the only truly weak side they can face – and there is only a 20% chance of this. Under their current predicament, it would be no surprise to see Arsenal exit at the first knockout round.

Avram Grant’s run to the final surpassed Jose Mourinho’s achievements with Chelsea in Europe, but the pair of coaches are looking preferable to Luiz Felipe Scolari after the Brazilian, in his first season, nearly guided the club out of the group stage and into the murky underwaters of the Uefa Cup. Ultimately, second place was achieved but only after a scare in their final game at home to minnows Cluj.

Draws with the Romanians and Bordeaux, and defeat to an out-of-form Roma side – all on the road – belied their excellent record in the Premier League. It seems that although they can travel up to Middlesbrough and Bolton and win without trouble, crossing the channel to play does not appeal to the players.

The Champions League has proved an antithesis to Chelsea’s domestic form. Scolari has led his side to three home wins in Europe when they have managed only that many in eight league matches at Stamford Bridge. Only two points were collected on their travels, but it’s 24 from 24 in England.

Scolari will be scratching his head for answers, especially as Chelsea have faced little in the way of strong opposition so far. They are in the same boat as Arsenal in terms of who they might face in the last 16, and only a marked improvement will ensure their progress. Roman Abramovich may be tightening the strings at the Bridge, but his hunger for continental glory is just as great – and Scolari needs to deliver.

Possible last 16 opponents
At worst… Barcelona, Juventus
At best… Panathinaikos

Prediction: Chelsea have more strength than Arsenal to deal with a tricky opponent, especially if they can get Didier Drogba firing again. Certainly capable of progressing against any of the five clubs, but first they must sort out their enigmatic European form. Chelsea are one of the leading contenders for the trophy while not being one of the obvious favourites – and they could benefit from this underdog status.