At the season’s genesis many pundits had Villa pegged as the team most likely to head up the ‘Little 16’; trailing in some 10-20 points adrift of the all-conquering ‘Big Four’ and being bloody well delighted about it too. What wasn’t supposed to happen was that Martin O’Neill’s men would not only be nipping at the ankles of the established Premier League superpowers, but actually going toe-to-toe with them in the apparently closed four-horse race for precious Champions League places.

Of course, there can be no losers in such a race – which makes it so blindingly dull for supporters of the clubs not involved (i.e. the vast majority of football fans). For a fifth club, an upstart such as Everton or Tottenham in the recent past, to enter the pursuit makes it a race so much more entertaining to behold. This season, quite clearly, Aston Villa are the greatest threat to the monotonous quadropoly; lurking, as they do, in third place with virtually half the season done.

It is to be expected that Manchester United will return, victorious, from Japan hungry to make up the ground lost on their key rivals – few doubt that the World Champions will rejoin the top three sooner rather than later. Chelsea and Liverpool may be stuttering, but still hold a significant points advantage over the chasing pack. They, too, are both involved in what promises to be a fascinating title race for the long haul.

That, of course, leaves Arsenal – still suffering from a perplexing lack of consistency – as the team most likely to accede to the rise of the charging Villans.

The general perception, at least outside of their plush Bodymoor Heath training complex, has been that the Birmingham club would take fifth place and a complimentary pat on the head as reward for their exciting brand of lightning-quick attacking football. Even as recently as last month – when their side crashed consecutively at home to Middlesbrough and away at St James’ Park – most Villa fans, still basking in a re-found pride in their club under the sound stewardship of Randy Lerner, would most certainly have accepted such a fate.

Yet, of late, the tide of opinion has turned. News yesterday of inspirational Arsenal playmaker Cesc Fabregas’ enforced absence through a medial ligament injury, while greeted with the apposite sympathy, has caused that tide to swell further. For Arsenal, already feather-light in central midfield, to lose their influential captain for the bulk of the remainder of the season is – in football terms at least – nothing short of a tragedy.

Sure, the young Spanish superstar has suffered from intermittent form this term – most likely as a direct result of losing stalwart engine room colleagues Gilberto Silva and, in particular, Mathieu Flamini. But his untimely withdrawal from the Ashburton Grove stage this week has rocked the foundations of an already restless side. Authentic on-field leadership is in short supply at the Emirates Stadium, as any casual observer of ex-skipper William Gallas will testify. Arsene Wenger now has an almighty task on his hands to galvanise his remaining troops for the mid-winter slog to come.

Focussing on the positives – and there are a few – in Denilson, Diaby and co, Wenger can call upon a selection of promising midfield players that most other top-flight clubs would love to call their own; a return to first team duties of fox-in-the-box Eduardo is fast approaching; and, most importantly of all, the January transfer window will slide satisfyingly open in just one week’s time. To salvage the Gunners’ season Wenger must bite the bullet and invest.

In this new era of so-called economic prudence – when we, the general public, are being urged to get out on the High Street and spend, spend, spend – to maintain the wonderful results of his young Villa squad, Martin O’Neill must now do the same. His late-summer splurge aside, the name of the game to date has been slow and steady progress at Villa Park. It’s a model which has served the ex-Celtic boss well.

However – and money-man Lerner would surely agree – it’s particularly rare that such an opportunity to make a seismic breakthrough arises in the all-too static environs of the Premier League. With Manchester City and, conceivably, Spurs waiting in the wings to challenge for European spots again next season (providing neither club is relegated of course) the time to strike is now. If Villa can preserve their new-found ruthless streak and overturn a Cesc-less Arsenal on Friday, they would surge six points clear of the Gunners. Not enough to seal a magical European odyssey right there on the spot, but a significant and tangible psychological blow to Wenger’s young side.

Whatever the result, it is patently clear that Villa’s current staff is lacking in the depth of quality required to feature prominently on three fronts in the season’s second half – a cursory glance at a bench featuring Zat Knight, Marlon Harewood and a bunch of raw youth-team prospects tells that story quite plainly. To support the free-scoring ways of Gabby Agbonlahor and Ashley Young; the midfield industry of Stillian Petrov and a re-focused Gareth Barry; and the defensive solidity of Martin Laursen and Brad Friedel, one or two quality reinforcements will be required – particularly in the striking department.

It should not prove a difficult sell to encourage top talent from around the globe to a club so clearly on an upward curve. Should their abundantly generous American proprietor adhere, once more, to his policy of ‘speculate to accumulate’, Villa might yet de-throne one of English football’s four reigning kings.

Cannavaro will be absent with injury

Does Cannavaro’s injury spell the end of Italy’s hopes?

Inspirational leader Fabio Cannavaro will miss Euro 2008 after tearing ligaments in his left ankle in training. Roberto Donadoni has lost more than a solid defender. Cannavaro is an authority in the Italian squad and a respected captain and the Real Madrid centre-back would have provided the stimulation for the tournament, being associated with the World Cup triumph in Germany.

Donadoni’s job is far from secure and Cannavaro’s injury is an unwelcome bit of new for the former Livorno coach. Realistically, Italy need to reach the semi-finals at least if Donadoni is to remain employed.

France struggle for form

A 0-0 draw with lowly Paraguay doesn’t raise hopes of France surpassing their World Cup exploits at the Euros. In fact, as a member of the group of death, Raymond Domenech’s side must be wondering whether their tournament will be over after just three matches.

Their trio of games against South American opposition provides the squad with a physical test, but whether Ecuador, Paraguay and Colombia are up to Euro 2008 standard is debatable.

Nevertheless, Les Bleus defence looks as sturdy as ever – something their World Cup campaign was based upon – and recent history points to their form turning up just in time. Thierry Henry will have to put a poor season behind him, with extra pressure exerted upon the Barcelona man with David Trézéguet’s exclusion, while many feel Samir Nasri, the Arsenal-bound midfield star, will be given plenty of playing time in spite of his age.

Patrick Vieira’s injury hasn’t helped Domenech’s preparations; consequently, Mathieu Flamini has earned a reprieve.

See Times Online’s analysis of France’s hopes: France face a battle at Euro 2008

Out with an attacker, in comes defender

The Netherlands have been accused to lacking their most famous traits: the art of being able to play stunning, attacking football. Ryan Babel’s inventiveness has rarely been on display at club Liverpool over the last year, but he was tipped for a starring role in Austria/Switzerland. However, injury has ensured he will be spending the summer with Rafa Benítez to cap off a miserable year and Marco Van Basten has replaced him with defender Khalid Boulahrouz instead of an attacking player.

There is plenty of talent amongst the Dutch squad, but fusing it has always proved incredibly testing. On paper, they have one of the most talented squads but reality has often been starkly different.

Arsenal might run a tight financial ship, but their wage structure is costing them current and prospective players. Mathieu Flamini’s move to AC Milan was in part motivated by a superior contract offer from the Italians after Arsenal’s bid fell well short of what Flamini expected. Alexander Hleb is expected to leave the club for similar reasons, and while Arsenal don’t have a problem in attracting talented players to the club, when a player of David Villa’s calibre says he would like to join the club Arsène Wenger is forced to resist because he would crave too much money.

2. Age matters

Wenger’s policy on age has not provided any immediate rewards, and every top team benefits from an old head or three. Milan won the Champions League last year with an ageing but thoroughly experienced side while closer to home, Manchester United benefit from the input of Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs and Chelsea from Claude Makélélé. Wenger rids of any player over 30 or offers them only one-year extensions – a rule that saw the departure of the hugely influential Robert Pires – and insists on purchasing only young, mouldable players especially up front – where Arsenal have suffered the most.

3. Don’t splash the cash

Arsenal’s spending may have been curbed by the new stadium, but Wenger has always had money at hand. Yet his infatuation with keeping the books balanced and maintaining his positive transfer balance sheet cost Arsenal the title this season when injuries struck in the second half of the campaign and there was no depth of quality. Wenger will oppose signing expensive players, particularly because his hands have been burnt before with the likes of Jose Antonio Reyes, but seemingly this is what the club needs. Just look at how effective Man Utd’s expensive summer signings have proved as Sir Alex Ferguson’s side head for a pair of coveted trophies.

4. If unhappy, leave

Many clubs are content in letting discontented players leave, but sometimes pride has to be sacrificed for the greater good. The departures of Pires and Flamini show stubbornness on Arsenal’s part, and rather than shuttle unhappy players to the exit station there must be a more conciliatory atmosphere in order to keep the best players. Real Madrid president Ramon Calderón recently said that target Cesc Fàbregas must ask to leave before Los Merengues can move for the talented Spaniard, clearly aware of the connotations such a request would have.

5. Brawn over brain

The stylish football Arsenal display is frequently breathtaking and must be sustained for the good of the game. However, when it isn’t proving successful, the players must learn the art of being able to change the way they play in an instant and transform their approach into the Premier League fashion of playing hard and direct. Drawn games, not defeats, are what cost the Gunners title glory, and the team’s methodical rigidity tactically can be apportioned some of the blame.

Serie A’s top tier establishment will effectively be decided this weekend as the most anticipated Milan derby in recent history takes centre-stage at the San Siro. Both teams go into the battle of the Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday afternoon needing a win, albeit for different reasons.

Internazionale could effectively win the Scudetto by beating rivals Milan with two games remaining thereafter, ending Roma’s title hopes. AC Milan on the other hand realise that anything but a win will likely settle the dust over a poor season, positioning themselves outside the Champions League places.

The last Milan derby, as I had argued previously, had lost its beauty, not least because AC Milan were 22 points behind Inter, and nowhere near a Champions League spot. But somehow, Carlo Ancelotti’s men find themselves within a whisker of fourth spot, though struggling to overcome a Fiorentina side who have had a marvellous season under Cesare Prandelli.

That makes this derby all the more interesting. Who would have guessed that the derby this Sunday would act to clarify the entire campaign?

Sunday may not seem significant for some, but four teams will be affected – Inter, Roma, Fiorentina and Milan. If Inter win, the Scudetto returns and Milan can forget about fourth spot. If Inter lose, Roma (if they win), would be within three points with two games to play. The consequences are clear.

Although most had predicted that Roberto Mancini’s men would be runaway leaders, Roma’s sporadic title charge has meant that the race has continued into the latter stages of the season.

This has been brilliant for Serie A, especially for those that argue that Italian football is negative. You only have to look at Juventus, Roma and Inter’s goal tally, the emergence of attacking football played by teams like Fiorentina and Udinese, or even the relatively high number of goals scored last weekend to show this has been an excellent year. And the derby may be a testament to what Serie A has done for the footballing year. Plaudits fall to Cristiano Ronaldo, Villarreal or Arsenal’s performances, but we are often forgetting the contribution that Serie A has made to European football the whole year round.

However, I guess all things being equal, the Milan derby might begin slowly, developing into a cagey type of game until late into the second half when goals will be needed and hearts will need to be on the sleeve. Hardly characteristic of a season of fantastic football throughout the league but in the end, fates will be decided in this encounter.

But this is the point, as playing in the Milan derby is not just about the result. The bragging rights are a high price to pay in a city which has one of Italy’s most supported teams (Inter) and Italy’s second most successful team (AC Milan). Styles of football contrast, approaches to passion do too, and although there are higher stakes for the short-term futures of both clubs, one should not be disappointed with the outcome. Expect a Gattuso tackle, a Materazzi lunge, Pirlo prodding the ball, Zanetti making a mazy run, either Kaka or Zlatan scoring a goal. All vital ingredients for a classic are at hand.

Only one can win, none can afford to draw, and neither will want to lose. This is by far the most anticipated Milan derby for years – so enjoy!

You can watch AC Milan v Inter live on Five (UK), Sunday 13:30 BST

News Briefs

Juventus continue to demolish and destruct anything in their way as they defeated Lazio 5-2, confirming their appearance in next season’s Champions League.

Claudio Ranieri has been applauded by former Juventus great Pietro Vierchowood for sustaining Juventus this season and notching up an impressive 70 points.

Alex Del Piero claims he deserves the call up for Euro 2008. Hard to disagree.

Mathieu Flamini, the tireless Arsenal midfield seems to be heading to the Diavolo. Both Ancelotti and Flamini have claimed that a deal has been struck. Of course, this can only be true until Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger confirms this.

Luca Toni may be signed by AC Milan to replace want away striker Alberto Gilardino; Barcelona have claimed that Ronaldinho and Gianluca Zambrotta’s signatures will cost the Rossoneri €40 million.

And finally… AC Milan’s Kaka has been named on Time Magazine’s ‘100 most influential people’ list. He is the only footballer on the list, superseding Cristiano Ronaldo, David Beckham or any other footballer. That is a true testament to Kaka, as he joins leaders of all walks of life, authors, politicians and celebrities. Well done Kaka.

Arriverderci

Selling Nicolas Anelka to Real Madrid in 1999 after the young Frenchman had looked set to become an Arsenal legend was bold. But he replaced him with Thierry Henry, and his decision was vindicated. Selling club captain Patrick Vieira in 2005 was bold. But he had Cesc Fabregas coming through, and knew he would never get a better fee for a 29 year old.

The same logic applied this summer when he decided to allow Henry to depart for Barcelona. Henry may well have been the figurehead of previous Arsenal sides, but at 29 he was arguably never going to match his frighteningly special exploits of previous seasons, and Wenger had faith that the team could cope without their captain and star player, and that some of his younger players would step up and take over the baton – and boy have they done that.

There are other examples – converting Lauren and Kolo Toure into a full back and a centre half must be applauded. Replacing Marc Overmars with Robert Pires for a quarter of the fee was a masterstroke. Poaching Sol Campbell from North London rivals Tottenham not only solidified a creaking defence, but also managed to wind up Spurs fans as well. A double whammy.

Those are big decisions, and decisions that; quite rightly, Wenger has been widely praised for. But it is the emergence of Mathieu Flamini and Emmanuel Adebayor this season that has given a reminder, as if it were needed, that as both a coach and a manager, Wenger has few equals in the game.

In Henry’s absence last season, Gilberto Silva was the man who stepped up as the leader of the team. He assumed the captain’s armband and managed to chip in with a pretty impressive ten goals. He was certainly a contender for Arsenal’s player of the season in a difficult campaign. Yet this season he has found himself very much a backup to the superb Flamini, who has performed to such a level that his team-mates have nicknamed him “Gattuso” after the Italian World Cup winner.

Wenger waxed lyrical about his latest French star after last week’s 3-0 win over Newcastle at the Emirates, in which the 23 year old created a goal for Adebayor with a typically energetic right wing burst and cross, before grabbing the second goal himself with a strike that any of Wenger’s other success stories would have been proud of, a 30-yard howitzer that flew past Shay Given. And yet it wasn’t just these match winning contributions that caught the eye.

In terms of energy, work rate, stamina and determination, both defensively and going forward, it is hard to find a central midfield player that can compare to the quiet Frenchman at this current time. The fact that most Arsenal fans do not miss a Brazilian World Cup winner and member of their famous unbeaten side of 2004, says it all.

Flamini is not just a superb player, but he has shown a strength of character that is so often lacking with young foreign players at big clubs. Indeed, just this month we saw Lassana Diarra get tired of waiting for a first team chance at Arsenal within his first four months at the club and move on to Portsmouth.

The irony is that it is Flamini who was blocking his countryman’s route to the first team.

An impressive performer for Marseille in their run to the UEFA Cup final, Flamini was signed by Wenger in a somewhat controversial deal in 2004, and became something of a utility player in his early days at Highbury, operating all over the midfield and even at left-back – with some distinction as well. However, with Gilberto and first Vieira, then Fabregas, ahead of him in the pecking order, his first team opportunities were limited, and more often than not he featured either as a substitute, or when the squad was hit by injuries. A lesser character might have given up – Diarra, David Bentley, Jose Antonio Reyes all showed a reluctance to accept a bit part role with the Gunners – and decided that their future lay elsewhere. Flamini, with Wenger’s guidance, knuckled down, worked hard, trusted in his own ability and earnt the support of his manager. Support which he has repaid this season by the bucket-load.

Adebayor is a slightly different case, a more established player in Ligue 1 with both Metz and AS Monaco, he was seen as a rough diamond for Wenger to shape.

His style and appearance drew comparisons with Kanu (Wenger himself described him as “Kanu with pace”), and his early performances for the Gunners suggested that he may, like the Nigerian, have all the tricks in the book, yet lack the consistency to become a really top-class Premiership player. Alongside Henry, he more often than not took a backseat role, allowing the Frenchman to grab the headlines whilst his own performances were rather more low key. But in Henry’s (and Robin Van Persie’s) absence through injury last season, Wenger saw enough in the languid Togolese striker to know that he was capable of filling the void left by Arsenal’s all-time record goalscorer’s departure to Spain.

It was a big ask of Adebayor, but again, “the professor” has been proved right.

Adebayor has shrugged off the lazy comparisons to Kanu, and has established himself alongside the likes of Didier Drogba as one of the best out and out centre forwards in England, if not Europe.

He has netted 21 times in 30 appearances, and his ability to lead the line and offer a physical presence is something that Arsenal have not had the luxury of under Wenger. His presence allows Arsenal to add a fresh dimension to their game, something that was relentlessly criticised in previous seasons. The desire to score “The Perfect Goal” seems to have been replaced by a more pragmatic approach, as shown by the headed goals Adebayor has picked up against Fulham and Newcastle in recent games. That isn’t to say that the aesthetic side of Arsenal’s game has suffered, and Adebayor plays a huge part in the flowing football that Wenger’s side dishes up week after week, his first touch is as good as any in the Premier League, he is blessed with fantastic pace and athleticism, and his awareness is something that is improving with every passing game.

It was widely expected that Robin Van Persie would be the one to step up and be the main man at the Emirates, but with the Dutchman beset by injury it is Adebayor who has become the focal point of the side. Every side needs one, and in the current market, there are few more valuable assets around in the game.

In Flamini and Adebayor, Wenger has two more cases to add to his CV for getting the best out of players, and for knowing the right time to replace the irreplaceable. Gilberto and Henry have won pretty much everything in the game, who’s to say that Flamini and Adebayor won’t follow in their footsteps? With Wenger behind them, the sky is the limit.